Kev Tshawb Fawb Txog Yav Tom Ntej: Qhov cuam tshuam ntawm Kev Tiv Thaiv Kev Tiv Thaiv Ntawm Tebchaws Asmeskas Hnub Ci Kev Pabcuam

Wood Mackenzie tsab ntawv tshaj tawm tshiab "Lub Teb Chaws Asmeskas cov khoom siv hnub ci nyob rau hauv kev tiv thaiv ntau dua" taw qhia tias raws li kev lag luam tariffs thiab kev txwv ntshuam ntawm US hnub ci cov saw hlau maj mam nce, txawm hais tias qhov kev nce hauv kev tsim khoom hauv tsev yuav yog qhov sib txawv tsis tau, nws yuav ua rau muaj kev lag luam. txo qis kev vam khom rau cov neeg xa khoom thoob ntiaj teb thiab kev nce hauv cov khoom siv hluav taws xob photovoltaic, thiab cov nqi yuav khoom hauv tsev yuav zoo li kim.

Tam sim no, lub roj teeb rau module ua tus nqi rau ob sab PERC modules hauv Tebchaws Meskas yog $0.23/W, nrog tus nqi muag kawg ntawm kwv yees li $0.33/W, thiab cov roj teeb feem ntau yog muab los ntawm Southeast Asia. Nws yog cia siab tias los ntawm 2025, nrog rau kev tsim kho ntawm cov roj teeb hauv zos muaj peev xwm, cov nqi ua haujlwm ntawm ob sab TOPCon cov khoom siv Asmeskas cov roj teeb yuav yog $0.18/watt, thiab cov tus nqi muag yuav nce mus rau $0.41/watt. Los ntawm 2032, tus nqi ua cov roj teeb rau cov khoom siv yuav txo mus rau $0.16 ib watt, thaum tus nqi muag tseem yuav siab li $0.35 ib watt . Hauv qhov sib piv, cov nqi roj teeb nyob rau sab hnub tuaj Asia yog kwv yees li 0.08 US las ib watt, thaum cov khoom siv ua haujlwm yog kwv yees li 0.07-0.08 US las ib watt. Txawm hais tias kev siv cov nqi se tshiab los ntawm Tebchaws Meskas, tus nqi ntawm kev yuav cov roj teeb los ntawm cov teb chaws uas tsis yog tariff xws li Indonesia thiab Nplog tseem tuaj yeem nyob ib puag ncig $ 0.10 ib watt.

Qhov kev tshuaj ntsuam kuj qhia tias yog tias Tebchaws Meskas tseem txhawb nqa kev tiv thaiv kev tiv thaiv, nws yuav ua rau muaj kev kub ntxhov hauv kev ua lag luam, cov khoom siv nce nqi, thiab tuaj yeem cuam tshuam qhov kev ua tiav, yog li cuam tshuam rau kev ua tiav ntawm lub teb chaws cov hom phiaj decarbonization. Tsis tas li ntawd, yam xws li cov nqi ua haujlwm siab thiab tsis muaj kev lag luam ntawm cov nplai hauv Tebchaws Meskas tseem yuav ua rau cov nqi tsim khoom. Cov neeg sab hauv kev lag luam ntseeg hais tias qhov kev tawm tsam ntawm Tuam Tshoj txoj kev xav thiab kev tos txais los ntawm cov tuam txhab lag luam yuav ua rau muaj kev lag luam ntau dua, thiab kev xaiv tsa thawj tswj hwm yav tom ntej ntxiv rau qhov tsis paub tseeb. Michelle Davis, tus thawj coj ntawm Wood Mackenzie lub hnub ci kev faib thoob ntiaj teb, tau taw qhia tias yog Trump raug xaiv tsa, tariffs tuaj yeem nce ntxiv, nrog rau ntau tshaj 60% tariffs rau Suav imports.

Nyob rau hauv lub neej yav tom ntej nrog cov khoom siv tsawg, Wood Mackenzie cia siab tias Tebchaws Meskas yuav muaj 11 GW ntawm silicon wafers, 55 GW ntawm cov roj teeb, thiab 88 GW ntawm cov khoom tsim muaj peev xwm. Raws li cov lus tshaj tawm nthuav tawm tam sim no, US silicon wafer muaj peev xwm ntau lawm yuav nce mus rau 22GW, roj teeb muaj peev xwm yuav ncav cuag 74GW, thiab module tsim muaj peev xwm yuav nce ntawm 18GW hauv 2023 txog 139GW hauv 2027.

Daim ntawv tshaj tawm qhia tias nyob rau hauv qhov xwm txheej no, cov neeg yuav khoom photovoltaic yuav tsum kho lawv cov tswv yim kev yuav khoom thiab xyuas kom cov khoom siv los ntawm kev sib koom tes ncaj qha kom tau txais cov nqi zoo dua thiab cov xwm txheej.